Baseball is back. You can feel an energy in the Peters' household that is unlike any other time of the year. Yes, my fiancé might say that the energy is due to our Mexico wedding that's happening in just over a week but she would be wrong. The energy is stemming from an excitement heading into a season that we haven't had in YEARS. A team that got significantly better this offseason by adding the best manager in baseball, bringing back one of the best free agent left handed hitters in Cody Bellinger, and adding an exciting Japanese pitcher with tremendous upside. Couple all of that with a budding farm system that's ranked 2nd in the MLB with 2024 ETA talent across multiple positions, and you get an energy that rivals my own destination wedding. The ceiling is high for the 2024 Chicago Cubs and playing in a weak NL Central should propel this team to the playoffs for the first time in a full season since 2018. And once you're in the dance, the 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks proved that anything can happen.
The 2023 Cubs season ended in complete heartbreak. They went from a near 90% chance to make the playoffs to out of the race in a matter of weeks. I went to Milwaukee for one of the last series of the year and found myself looking for the easiest and most discreet way to murder Bernie Brewer*. It was a dark time. But here we are, with opening day just a week away, I'm ready to ride the 162 game rollercoaster with a much improved lineup ready to compete again.
*I decided the best way would be to sneak into the ballpark late at night and grease up the slide really good. This would get him reaching speeds that were uncontrollable sending him flying into a padded wall that was mysteriously strapped with sharp knives. See ya Bernie.
Pitching Staff
With the departure of a rocky Marcus Stroman, the Cubs bolstered the rotation by adding Shota Imanaga out of Japan. You can read more about him here but I believe he's going to be an absolute force at the top of the rotation. Drew Smyly also bumps to the bullpen to make room for the 24 year-old Jordan Wicks. My only concern is that Wicks, Hendricks, and Imanaga are not necessarily overpowering pitchers. They pitch for soft contact and rely on control which if the control isn't there, the soft contact becomes batting practice. Imanaga has shown to be way more of a strikeout pitcher in Spring so we'll see if the carries over to his pro debut.
1 - Justin Steele
2 - Shota Imanaga
3 - Jameson Taillon*
4 - Kyle Hendricks
5 - Jordan Wicks
Bullpen: Neris (Closer), Alzolay (Closer), Almonte, Leiter Jr., Merryweather, Cuas, Little.
Is it the greatest bullpen in Cubs history? Not at all. But I love the addition of Hector Neris to the backend of the pen to pair with the electric Adbert Alzolay.
Prospect
Cade Horton and Ben Brown
I think either one, if not both, of these guys can make a debut in 2024. Horton is the higher ranked guy and his stuff is filthy. If he can prove it in the minors early on and get elevated to AAA quickly, I think he'll be up by the end of summer. Ben Brown has had some control issues but he can absolutely sling it. I'd love to see his power arm and large prescence on the mound at Wrigley.
*Injured: Taillon. Javiar Assad will get the nod in the rotation while we wait for Taillon to recover.
Some of the stats above are baseball reference projections and some are spring training stats.
Offense/Bats
The starting 9 doesn't look all that different from 2023, aside from the addition of Dodgers prospect Michael Busch. However, it's another year of growth for guys like Morel, Suzuki, and even Nico Hoerner. Bellinger proved that he can play at an MVP level once again and if we get 2nd-half Seiya for a full season, the middle of this lineup has some serious power. Morel has obvious swing and miss issues but when he connects the ball goes a long way. While we wait for Pete Crow-Armstrong to develop a bit, Mike Tauchman will get some playing time out in center which is fine, if we get the Mikey T of 2023. Gomes will be behind the dish but I expect Miguel Amaya to share duties and eventually take over since he provides a bit more power with his bat.
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Opening Day Starting 9:
Happ - LF
Hoerner - 2B
Bellinger - 1B
Suzuki - RF
Swanson - SS
Morel - DH
Busch - 3B
Tauchman - CF
Gomes - C
A lot can happen with this lineup. I lay in bed every night reworking it and trying to figure out the best way to optimize the talent we have. I think the above, for now, is how I would construct it. However, I think I'd like Busch at 1st, Bellinger in CF, shift Morel to 3B, and open up the DH spot to whoever wants to hit the shit out of the ball. I'm just worried that Morel and Busch might not be the best defensive options to open the season. Another wild card, I could see Garret Cooper playing first if he can provide some power.
PCA will hopefully find his way up in the MLB a few weeks into the season. In this scenario you now shift Belli over to first and Morel and Busch can share 3B and DH duties. That becomes a scary scary lineup.
Bold Predictions
Nico Hoerner Will Be An All-Star
I make this prediction every year but I truly believe it'll happen in 2024. Gold Glove and All-Star season loading.
Shota Imanaga Will Be In Rookie of the Year Conversation
I don't think it's that crazy to see this happening. Currently 12/1 odds to win it, Shota can easily be in talks mid-summer to win the award.
Massive Prospect Trade At The Deadline
The Cubs have A TON of 2025/2026 ETA prospects that make them the perfect candidate for a mid-season trade. I could see this happening for a top of the rotation pitcher or a lock down closer (Alex Lange) depending on the Neris/Alzolay situation
People Will Call For Matt Shaw
Matt Shaw tore up Spring Training and is ready to go at the MLB level. College bat who continues to prove he can hit at all levels. Unfortunately, he doesn't have a clear "fit" on the Cubs right now. But I think we'll get people calling for his bat in August.
Nico Hoerner Will Steal 50 bases
Nico will be the first Cub since Juan Pierre (2007) to steal 50 bases in a season
Cody Bellinger Will Hit 40 Home Runs
This might put him on MVP watch too
Dates To Circle On The Calendar
4/01 - Monday: Opening Day. Opening day remains one of my favorite days of the year. If you haven't been, go.
4/5-4/7 - Dodgers and Shohei come to town. I'd BET it'll be a good weekend of baseball
4/20 - Marlins on a Saturday - Jazz Chisholm is worth seeing
5/4 - Brewers Saturday
5/21-5/23 - Braves during the week. Might be the best team in baseball?
6/1 - Reds on a Saturday. Should be some good energy since they're the biggest rival in the division(?)
6/15 - Cardinals on a Saturday
7/4 - July 4th against the Phillies and Kyle Schwarber
7/20 - Saturday against World Series participant Arizona Diamondbacks
8/17 - Saturday against the Blue Jays who are a young fun team
9/6 - Yankees with a Rizzo return
9/27-29 - Final series of the year against the reds COULD be what makes my heart stop. Hopefully this doesn't matter.
Giveaways
A few giveaways that might actually be worth it this year...
Not a lot of great giveaway items this year but as always, there's some phenomenal college hats. So I highly recommend looking for your school and buying the special ticket offer
New To Wrigley Field
A new season means changes to historic Wrigley Field. New food, new spaces, and so much more! However, I haven't seen ANYTHING about new food and new spaces. I'll follow-up after opening day and report back with my findings!
Vegas Odds
Win Total: 84.5 (77.5 entering 2023)
Odds to win the NL Central: +185 (Down from +600 entering 2023)
Odds to make playoffs: -115 (Down from +360 entering 2023)
Odds to win the World Series: 30/1 (Down from 90/1 entering 2023)
Justin Steele Cy Young: +2000
NL Manager of the Year: +550
Bellinger NL MVP: +5000
Shota Imanaga ROY: +1200
PCA ROY: +4000
Every year I'm excited for baseball season because there's nothing else like it. There's no better place than Wrigley and there's no other sport that's on practically every day of the week giving you something to look forward to. But this year isn't the same kind of excitement. It isn't the "well no matter what happens, at least we have the federal landmark in July." This year there are REAL expectations. This year is the window opening again and serious competitor that we haven't seen on the Northside for 162 since 2018. We have the pieces to be surprisingly competitive with a farm system that's bursting at the seams...remind you of another year? Now I'm not saying that we're going to win a World Series in 2025 but I am saying that this is going to be the first of many playoff baseball teams over the next 5+ years. I'm ready for October to mean something again.
Bring on 162.
Go Cubs Go.